“[T]he Afrin Operation works well for Erdogan politically. It presents him as tough on addressing terrorism and it allows him to stand up against the Americans. Both of these…are genuinely popular across much of the political spectrum.”

“I don’t think that there’s any question that jailing Kilicdaroglu would be a bad move for Erdogan. [The CHP] gives the [AKP] a clear domestic foil… CHP leadership would be much more dangerous to the AKP in prison than it is in parliament.”

“To me it boils down to this: Erdoğan would certainly prefer to win the elections without outright ballot rigging. But is he willing to lose? I don’t think so. The next election is existential for him. He will win it by hook or by crook.”

“The internal purge seems to be compounding the AKP’s problems… The party has become too centered on Erdogan’s own personality, his concerns, his whims. It has lost the diversity and, with it, the capacity to connect to the grass roots.”

“For a long time Turkey was perceived as an ally, as a reliable bastion of stability, and…a lot of human rights abuses were ignored or marginalized. Now Turkey is seen as a rogue state, as breaking basic norms of the rule of law.”

“Congress is very frustrated with Turkey and is likely to demand further action. The easiest path, political­ly, for Erdogan, is to wrap himself in the flag and wait this out.”

“[I]rritation with the directions of Turkish policy seems to be one of the few areas that Republicans and Democrats come together… I expect more punitive measures, especially if the current crisis is unresolved.”

“Some inside the regime see [lawyer and prospective presidential candidate] Khaled Ali as somebody who could mobilize public opinion, who has a public profile. They want to make a move that would disqualify him from running.”

“[R]elations with the US are likely to grow more rather than less tense. Trump’s protestations of goodwill won’t change basic divisions over Syria. And they are likely to sharpen…Congressional determination to intervene in US-Turkish relations.”

“If the Trump administration truly wanted to send a strong signal to Sisi’s government on human rights, they could have used the authority in the law to cut [instead of delaying] this $195m in military aid to Egypt.”