“What’s striking about today’s abuses isn’t that they’re innovative…—most would have quite normal in the 1990s—but rather that they represent a very clear rolling back of reforms that the AKP itself had implemented.”
“My strong sense is that much of this is generated by prosecutors and facilitated by judges who are guessing at what the government wants… You have an environment where everyone is trying to demonstrate their loyalty.”
“Trump has sanctioned Turkey before, but he does this in such a transactional way that the message is, I will sanction you now but you just have to give me one concession and I will lift it.”
“Regardless of the oil’s origin and how many times it changed hands, it appears to have come to Turkey through Kurdish middlemen and smugglers. This is all part of the war economy we’ve been tracking along the Turkish-Syrian border.”
“As in the case of Demirtas, the Turkish government has simply invested too much politically in demonizing Kavala. It is possible that Turkey will comply with the ruling, but I don’t expect it.”
“Erdogan not only banks on his personal rapport with Trump to evade congressional pressure and minimize bilateral tensions. He is also emboldened by an American president who appears to share his contempt for media, dissent and rule of law.”
“Turkey’s success [in Syria] has hidden, and still unclear costs, in Turkey’s relationship with the EU and the US. Likely not high, but that is uncertain.”
“If Congress wants to sanction Turkey, then it needs to sanction Turkey in the right ways and with an eye towards getting results — not just [doing] things that will piss them off.”