“This election is up for grabs: [Muharrem] Ince’s decision not to run anymore has made it significantly more likely that we will have a winner this Sunday.”

If the AKP tries [to manipulate the vote], Washington’s response will “hugely shape” the future of U.S.-Turkish relations. “People will note how the Biden administration, which talks a big talk about defending democracy, has or has not reacted.”

Kilicdaroglu would bring a different quality of diplomacy were he to be Turkey’s next leader. “I think it will have a huge impact. . . . The fact that Turkey will have a more democratic image will help the US defend that close relationship it has with Turkey.”

“[If election observers report] wide-scale attempts at fraud on election day or that night when the vote is being counted and they are disputing the official numbers being announced by the government and the government’s news agencies, I think in these moments it’s very important that the international community step in with a very strong message saying this is unacceptable and they will not consider this a free election if these accusations continue or if the government doesn’t try to address them.”

“Amidst Turkey’s election season, politicians on all sides are exploiting and playing up the migration issue, and vowing to deport the refugees back to Syria…. A mass deportation in the near future is not out of the question, given the ongoing rapprochement with the Assad regime. If the opposition wins, this rapprochement is likely to continue and perhaps even accelerate.”

“I’m very worried about violence in this election. . . . But I’m especially worried about this on election day, because it could not only disrupt the voting process but also significantly compromise civic efforts to secure election integrity.”

“Even if Erdogan promises to resume peace negotiations with the PKK, the Kurds simply no longer trust him. They are among the worst victims of Erdogan’s regime.”