Kilicdaroglu would bring a different quality of diplomacy were he to be Turkey’s next leader. “I think it will have a huge impact. . . . The fact that Turkey will have a more democratic image will help the US defend that close relationship it has with Turkey.”

“[If election observers report] wide-scale attempts at fraud on election day or that night when the vote is being counted and they are disputing the official numbers being announced by the government and the government’s news agencies, I think in these moments it’s very important that the international community step in with a very strong message saying this is unacceptable and they will not consider this a free election if these accusations continue or if the government doesn’t try to address them.”

“Amidst Turkey’s election season, politicians on all sides are exploiting and playing up the migration issue, and vowing to deport the refugees back to Syria…. A mass deportation in the near future is not out of the question, given the ongoing rapprochement with the Assad regime. If the opposition wins, this rapprochement is likely to continue and perhaps even accelerate.”

“I’m very worried about violence in this election. . . . But I’m especially worried about this on election day, because it could not only disrupt the voting process but also significantly compromise civic efforts to secure election integrity.”

“Even if Erdogan promises to resume peace negotiations with the PKK, the Kurds simply no longer trust him. They are among the worst victims of Erdogan’s regime.”

“In this specific moment we have more reason to be optimistic about Turkey’s election delivering an opposition win than we have ever been in the last 20 years.”

“This election is really about bigger things. It’s about a democratic future vs. a more autocratic future. It’s about Turkey’s economy and the direction that’s going to be taking. Is it going to recover under a new government with sensible fiscal policies? Is there going to be an independent central bank or are we going to continue down this path where inflation keeps on rising and the cost of living keeps rising for the people and becomes unbearable for a lot of its citizens?”

“Erdoğan might pull a January 6. . . . How would [the Biden administration] feel if in just three months, Turkey has its first unfree election in decades . . . and they have sold the F-16 to Turkey just months before?”

“[NATO allies] want to demonstrate to Russia that NATO is more united than ever and that even Erdogan’s Turkey won’t be able to spoil that. So Erdogan knows that he can get away with [bargaining over Sweden and Finland’s membership].”