“The invasion of Ukraine has affected the Egyptian economy, especially in regards to wheat prices, as has the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the underlying problems and roots of the crisis have been brewing for years as the economic crisis is largely driven by political economic choices which President Sisi has made.”

For FY23, lawmakers increased Egypt’s restricted aid that can’t be waived by $10 million, an indication “of the frustration with the administration’s policies to address these [human rights] concerns.”

“This is an important step by the administration, reaffirming to the Egyptian government that its human rights record will affect the relationship, and we have seen President Sisi’s government take some positive steps in response.”

The U.S. claim Egypt has made progress was belied by the continued detention of political prisoners. “While withholding the funds sends a message to al-Sisi that his failure to address U.S. human rights concerns will have a tangible impact on the relationship, illegitimately certifying progress where there is none muddles that message.”

Amy Hawthorne said the conditions cited on the tranche of $75 million included progress on political prisoners and on due process. “Any objective observers would say Egypt has not made clear and constant progress on either of those conditions, especially the second one,” she said. “This is rewarding the Egyptian government for something that is at most a half measure.”

“The U.S. administration froze $130 million in military aid allocated to Egypt due to Cairo’s non-compliance with the human rights conditions set by the U.S. State Department. Therefore, there are pressure tools that the US administration can use.”